ISTANBUL (TURKISH JOURNAL) – By Janet Ekstract – Currently, a summit is taking place in Moscow between Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin in a final attempt to cut a deal to avoid further bloodshed in northwest Syria. The Turkish president recently suffered increasing military losses and so many refugees fleeing that the situation has caused a border crisis of ubiquitous proportions.
An estimated 3 million people are trapped in Idlib and with the Syrian regime determined to pursue its military agenda with Russian backing, the likelihood of a ceasefire appears a distant hope on the horizon, according to experts. An independent Russian Foreign Affairs Analyst, Vladimir Frolov explained the situation: “The main problem in Idlib is the desire of President Bashar al-Assad…to establish full control of the area and block the border with Turkey, while also having pushed 3 million of the Sunni population, unfriendly to Assad, out onto Turkish soil.”
Since the last offensive began on December 1, close to 1 million people have been forced to flee their homes in the opposition-controlled region and amounts to the largest displacement since the war began nine years ago. A majority of those who fled are crammed at the Turkish border but cannot cross over since Erdogan made it very clear to the EU that Turkey who hosts close to 4 million refugees – cannot take on another huge wave.
In the last month, both Turkish and Syrian troops have repeatedly fought one another and Turkey sent thousands of troops to Syria in the last several weeks – experiencing major losses with 58 soldiers killed including 33 in an airstrike last week. Erdogan’s response was swift and direct, opening the Turkish border with Greece, effectively backtracking on a 2016 deal he made with the EU to keep refugees and migrants at bay – not allowing them into Europe. The Turkish president announced he would no longer prevent them from entering Europe.
Analysts view the meeting between the leaders as a last ditch move for Turkey since NATO did not respond with any type of assistance. A professor of International Relations at Altinbas University in Istanbul, Ahmet Kasim Han commented: “The Turkish side was compelled by necessity, in the hope that the pressure created as such would twist Europe’s arm.”
One of the most shocking events took place in Turkish Parliament on Wednesday after an opposition MP accused Erdogan of disrespecting soldiers. A sudden melee broke out with parliamentarians physically pushing and shoving one another aggressively as a result. Meanwhile, Erdogan told the press that his main objective would be to “rapidly achieve a ceasefire.” Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov explained Moscow’s position: “We expect to reach a shared view of the cause of the current crisis, its consequences and agree on a set of measures to overcome it.”
Certainly, a prominent aim for Erdogan is to avoid a new wave of refugees flooding into Turkey. Experts say since Putin strongly desires strong ties with Turkey to counterbalance U.S. influence in the region, that a mutual deal seems more likely under these circumstances. Putin has indicated his willingness to meet Turkish security issues. Since Putin and his Syrian allies have recaptured key cities along with gas and phosphate reserves, it’s likely Putin will find room to make a compromise on Idlib that both he and Erdogan can live with.
In the end, Turkish officials have made it very clear that they will no longer tolerate attacks on Syria’s civilian population and that something has to give. What Russia is willing to compromise on will go a long way in predicting the final outcome of Thursday’s Moscow summit.
