By Janet Ekstract
ISTANBUL (TURKISH JOURNAL)- Amid the continual U.S. scramble to evacuate its citizens and Afghans who assisted the U.S.- comes a long pause. The pause has rather more to do with analysts, experts and journalists not to mention strategic American allies wondering ‘What Next’ after the Taliban recaptured Afghanistan 20-years later.
It’s true the argument can easily be made that America’s 20-year stay to maintain a semblance of ‘democracy’ in Afghanistan while preventing a Taliban takeover seemed like a ‘noble venture.’ The U.S. with the assistance of a plethora of NGOs was able to achieve a notable increase in rights for women and girls. Sending girls to school was prioritized as well as putting women to work by teaching them work and life skills. Much progress was made and the forced burqa became just a distant memory. Afghanistan’s female population could truly breathe a sigh of relief for the first time in years.
Meanwhile, a number of experts on the region have chimed in wondering why after the U.S. made so much progress to the tune of millions of dollars – would it not have engaged a more well-thought out strategy to extricate itself from Afghanistan in such a way as to allow for the best possible outcome – to prevent the Taliban from retaking Afghanistan and to begin careful, methodical evacuations long before troop withdrawal not after.
The scathing truth is revealed in a new Pentagon report released earlier this week that explains the concept of creating a stable and peaceful Afghanistan was a pipe dream at best. The report stated that the U.S. government “was never equipped to undertake something this ambitious in such an uncompromising environment,” no matter how much it cost financially. The 122-page report by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, (SIGAR) agrees with U.S. President Biden’s view, that such a mission was a setup for failure no matter how long troops would have remained in Afghanistan. The report details the failings the U.S. made and points back to a most certain failed foreign policy coupled by a lack of clarity on the realities within the region that never lent itself to such a ‘misadventure’ in the first place. A key point being that the entire region is by and large tribal, which means that with so many factions and groups with varying agendas within the country, the prospects for forming a truly inclusive government remained elusive at best.
The current question on most people’s minds is ‘what were we thinking?’
Trillions of USD later, the U.S. and Afghans are still facing the Taliban threat and that’s an understatement no one needs to take bets on. One thing is certain is that the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan will influence the international community in the most far reaching ways and calls into question America’s overall foreign policy strategy. The fact also remains that in its takeover of the country, the Taliban now own an extremely valuable mineral reserve as outlined in a recent news article from CNN that states the reserve is worth $1 trillion USD and is essential to the international community.
The Taliban’s terror is far-reaching to be sure and not likely to change. Tactics might, but it’s fundamental underlying premise never will: to create a global Islamic caliphate. This mindset as the Pentagon report outlined is something that the U.S. woefully got wrong and inherently can never comprehend, the report stated.
Though currently, the main Taliban leadership are in talks with politicians on forming a new Afghan government – pervasive is the fear that remains as credible UN reports of the Taliban searching homes door-to-door for those who assisted the U.S. during the conflict continue to circulate. The murder of a relative by the Taliban of one of those being searched for, does not bode well for the future of Taliban rule.
Social media influencers have gone silent and underground. Prominent female activists risk their lives to remain. behind, speaking to the Western media – wondering all the while: ‘What Next’.’ A common view is that the Taliban won’t have an easy road convincing any government that they plan an inclusive governing style in Afghanistan.
Clearly, the Afghanistan of the present is not the Afghanistan of 2001 as many experts on the country have echoed. It was when Taliban control ended because the U.S. entered the country that Afghans were able to breathe a sigh of relief. Afghans now know what it’s like to taste freedom, to breathe freely and to not have to fear reprisals just because of their beliefs, not following Taliban rules or just because they want to BE. This was borne out in the recent protests against the Taliban across Afghanistan.
Though the Pentagon report does conclude that the U.S. presence did improve conditions in Afghanistan in medical care, women’s health and the environment – the report states that it did not improve any other aspect of their lives to any great extent. The report indicated that “prospects for sustaining the progress that was made are dubious.” That is largely because as the report states – the U.S. military never created even a remote semblance of security in numerous parts of Afghanistan.
Finally, according to the report, one of the greatest failures was that U.S. policymakers in Washington and field workers on the ground “were consistently operating in the dark,” as the report states. Additionally, they had no detailed understanding of Afghanistan’s social, economic or political dynamics either, the report explains in much detail.
This begs the question: ‘What’s Next?’
Next Thursday will prove crucial as the G7 group will convene a video conference on international cooperation in Afghanistan then. What effect, if any, this will have on the transfer of power talks that are currently ongoing among Taliban leadership and politicians in Afghanistan is uncertain. But at least one thing is certain, a majority of Afghans do not want the Taliban’s ubiquitous symbol of the burqa to become the lasting symbol that represents a future Afghanistan.
NOTE: The report entitled What We Need to Learn: Lessons From Twenty Years of Afghanistan Reconstruction is based on interviews with over 700 officials and a review of thousands of documents. Work on the report had been ongoing for months and is the 12th such report put out by SIGAR. The organization was founded in 2008 to monitor waste, fraud and abuse in the Afghan war.
