By Janet Ekstract
ISTANBUL- On Thursday, U.S. President Joe Biden spoke by phone with Ukraine’s President Zelensky, warning the Ukrainian leader that Russia could invade in February. A Ukrainian official told CNN that Zelensky told Biden to rachet down his predictions of an invasion because it was creating panic among citizens in his country. An anonymous Ukrainian official said Zelensky was quoted as saying “calm down the messaging.”
Meanwhile, CNN reported that a senior Ukrainian official said that Zelensky expressed to Biden that he disagrees with the U.S. assessment which could bring economic hardship to Ukraine if excess panic is stirred up. To the contrary, the official White House statement on Biden’s call did not mention Zelensky’s concern. Biden administration officials said that claims the call with Zelensky “did not go well” are untrue and that anonymous sources were “leaking falsehoods.” National Security Council Spokesperson Emily Horne said that CNN’s Senior National Security Correspondent Alexander Marquandt’s report that Biden claimed Russia will “sack” Ukraine is false. As Horne tweeted: ”This is not true. President Biden said that there is a distinct possibility that the Russians could invade Ukraine in February. He has previously said this publicly and we have been warning about this for months. Reports of anything more or different than that are completely false.”
Ukraine’s military leaders have sought to play down the possibility of a Russian invasion as Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told parliament on Tuesday: “As of today, there are no grounds to believe (Russia will invade).” Though analysts and experts on the region feel there is too much at stake for Putin to conduct a full-scale invasion – the U.S., UK as well as France and Germany are bracing for the Russian leader to make a sudden move, any day now.
In the meantime, the Biden administration already advised U.S. embassy personnel and their families in Kyiv to leave Ukraine. On Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged all Americans in Ukraine to leave as soon as possible. Meanwhile, Insider was told by Senior Consulting Fellow on the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House, Keir Giles: “There is a history of the U.S. trying to convince its European partners that the threat is imminent, based on the sources and intelligence it has, and they apparently do not.” Giles added there is “a gap in assessments of Russia’s likely courses of action.”
Ukraine has support from its neighbor Romania as Romanian President Klaus Iohannis reiterated support for Kyiv on Wednesday, commenting that Russian aggression is a threat to the entire European bloc. Iohannis in a statement said that Romania must be “prepared for any possible scenario. Romania, a NATO member shares a northern border with Ukraine. Iohannis added: “The crisis is not just about Ukraine, security on the Black Sea, or European security, but about the security of the Euro-Atlantic area”
After talks in France that took place on Wednesday between Putin, Zelensky, Macron and high-level diplomats from France and Germany – there is some window for hope. Both sides agreed to meet again for additional talks where Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that he only foresees serious talks on “secondary issues.” In the newest developments on the crisis, the UK’s National Cyber Security Center (NCSC) updated its guidance to UK firms and groups, warning British organizations to upgrade their digital defenses due to what the NCSC termed “malicious cyber incidents in Ukraine” which it is investigating. On Friday, a top Russian diplomat said that Russia will not start a war yet warned that Russia would not allow the West to hone in on its security interests based on fearmongering related to Ukraine. As Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterated in a live interview on Russian radio stations: “There won’t be a war as far as it depends on the Russian Federation, we don’t want a war.”
Both the UK and Germany have warned Russia of “very serious” sanctions should it decide to invade Ukraine. In addition, the U.S. and Germany have made it clear to Russia that any untoward moves in the crisis will result in the Nordstream 2 project – a key gas pipeline between Russia and the EU being halted. Meanwhile, on Friday French President Macron held a telephone conversation with Putin to gauge where Putin stands while Germany’s Foreign Minister Baerbock held a phone conversation with Russia’s foreign minister Lavrov. The issue of sanctions is now a contentious one since it came to light that Putin’s assets are in various bank accounts under the names of various Russian officials and known to the British as being connected to what has been labeled “dirty money” which means that Putin could stand to gain from whatever standoff he continues to maintain.
