By Janet Ekstract
İSTANBUL- Since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine on February 24, 2022 – the world has been observing a fascinating, albeit delicate dance, between Türkiye and its diverse neighbors. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan jumps on the mediation bandwagon every chance he gets and prefers to see himself as the bearer of peace. The goal for Erdogan as most analysts and experts agree, is to balance Türkiye’s relationship with both Russia and Ukraine as well as those of bordering nations, not far from those two. To Erdogan’s credit, he has managed to convince the powers that be, of his nation’s significance and carefully use ‘tiptoe’ diplomacy to his advantage.
A prime example of such a balancing act is the fact that Turkish drones have been instrumental in Ukraine’s ability to combat Russian troops in a myriad of Ukrainian cities, especially Kyiv. Yet, just two weeks ago, Erdogan and Putin met in Sochi to declare increased cooperation in a myriad of areas such as energy, economy, agriculture and technology. But some observers wonder just how far Erdogan’s balancing act can take him. Some nonresident senior fellows from the Atlantic Council in Turkey program have weighed in online about what they think. Nonresident Senior Fellow, Rich Outzen commented: “We can measure the Turkish balancing act along three dimensions: helping Ukraine avoid defeat, avoiding open conflict with Russia while demonstrating solidarity with the West, and increasing Ankara’s regional, diplomatic weight.” Outzen added that Turkish officials have “performed reasonably well” and said that an assault on Kyiv was prevented by the use of Turkish drone technology.
The reasoning goes something like this: since Türkiye is smack dab in the middle of all these countries with tenuous political and military ambitions, it makes perfect sense that Turkish officials have their own very unique economic and regional concerns which the grain deal, spearheaded by Turkish officials and UN-brokered, has brought to light. Erdogan was instrumental in initiating conversations with both Ukraine and Russia, in order to achieve the current grain export deal. Erdogan realizes it is especially crucial that his government maintain excellent relations with the U.S., the EU as well as his regional partners such as Azerbaijan, Georgia and the Turkic republics. As a strategic NATO member, Türkiye is well-positioned to understand the intricacies involved in global diplomacy.
Meanwhile, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Global Energy Center, Brenda Shaffer commented that Türkiye “has made major contributions to Europe, including the transit of additional natural gas from Azerbaijan to Europe.” Shaffer added that “Ankara is also preparing its gas supply infrastructure to transit additional gas from Azerbaijan to Europe in both the short and medium terms.” She added that Türkiye is more prepared in the energy sector than most European countries “through multiple gas suppliers, extensive storage, and even new gas discoveries through continued exploration of its territorial waters.” The EU and the West realize just how Türkiye’s geopolitical significance has increased four-fold, which has given Turkish officials more leeway to negotiate on their own behalf -when Erdogan demanded the West lift its arms embargo against Türkiye. Erdogan has been extra-vocal about pushing for renewed cooperation with NATO in the defense and security sectors which gives Türkiye a more prominent position among its allies that provides plenty of wiggle room for Turkish officials to take the diplomatic lead. But they know, they also must be extra-vigilant in their efforts so as not to appear they favor one nation over another. With no end in sight to the Russia-Ukraine war, that is a tall order for Türkiye but one it appears destined to fulfill.
